In the first article in this series, we looked at the historical data provided for 2014 and saw how the North West was outperforming the rest of the UK in terms of job growth. This was a broad article looking at general growth in industries within the North West. The aim of this next article is to look at the North East — which was seen to be in decline — and to take a far more specific focus by picking one industry that is declining and finding out what we can learn about it to see whether the decline is as serious as the data shows.
In the previous article we saw in passing that the North East was the only region to experience decline in 2014, shrinking by more than 5,000 jobs. Although this decline might appear to be relatively minor (only a 0.5% decrease) a glance at the data shows that it was more serious than that. When we examine the growth of Britain as a whole, we find average growth of 2.8% from 2013-2014, which means that the North East actually underperformed the national economy by 3.3%. And if we push forward to 2018, we can see in the graph below that projections for growth are not broadly positive, with expected growth in the North East over the period 2013-2018 as much as 4.2% lower than Britain as a whole:
When we zoom in a little closer and look at the County/Unitary Authority data for 2014 in the North East, the picture does not get any rosier. Only Darlington and Northumberland (two of the smaller regions in the North East) showed any job growth and even then it was by significantly less than the national average:
|Description||2013 Jobs||2014 Jobs||Change||% Change|
|Source: EMSI Covered Employment - 2015.1|
|Public administration and defence; compulsory social security||72,952||71,126||-1,826||-3%|
|General secondary education||20,941||19,834||-1,107||-5%|
|Freight transport by road||8,056||7,131||-925||-11%|
|Temporary employment agency activities||18,256||17,443||-813||-4%|
|Beverage serving activities||21,240||20,512||-728||-3%|
|Other education n.e.c.||6,795||6,280||-515||-8%|
|General cleaning of buildings||7,520||7,055||-465||-6%|
One of the things which is immediately obvious is the number of Education industries across all age ranges that have seen significant decline: Primary education (-2,084 jobs); General secondary education (-1,107 jobs); Tertiary education (-757 jobs); and Other education n.e.c. (-515 jobs). And in fact our data also shows that looking at Education industries as a whole over a five year period, from 2013-2018, the projected forecast is an expected job loss of 8.8%.
The data shown above is for industries, but we can also check the occupations data from our Analyst tool to see more clearly which particular occupations are likely to see this decline. The graph below is a quick summary of the biggest declining occupations in the North East from 2013-2018:
Clearly there are many occupations associated with Education that are set to decline, including Nursery nurses and assistants (-588 jobs); Primary and nursery education teaching professionals (-555 jobs); Secondary education teaching professionals (-441 jobs); Teaching assistants (-410 jobs); Further education teaching professionals (-260 jobs); Teaching and other educational professionals n.e.c. (-238 jobs); School midday and crossing patrol occupations (-204 jobs); and Higher education teaching professionals (-191 jobs). It is important, however, to note that this data cannot tell the whole story by itself, but rather needs to be combined with local knowledge to get a full picture. Data can tell you what is happening but it cannot tell you why the numbers are saying what they are saying.
So far, the data presented has painted a fairly bleak picture, especially in regard to the Education sector. However, there is another dataset we can look at which tells a slightly different and more positive story. Our openings data examines not just job change, as seen in the graph above, but also takes into account replacement jobs within a given occupation, essentially allowing us to look at job churn or turnover. When we look at the SOC code for Teaching and Education Professionals (2311-2319) we can see a list of the occupations with not only job change but also a list of their openings and annual openings:
|Description||2013 Jobs||2018 Jobs||Change||% Change||Openings||Annual Openings|
|Source: EMSI Covered Employment - 2015.1|
|Higher education teaching professionals||4,471||4,280||-191||-4%||887||177|
|Further education teaching professionals||4,993||4,733||-260||-5%||983||197|
|Secondary education teaching professionals||10,516||10,075||-441||-4%||2,086||417|
|Primary and nursery education teaching professionals||14,192||13,637||-555||-4%||2,826||565|
|Special needs education teaching professionals||2,249||2,104||-145||-6%||440||88|
|Senior professionals of educational establishments||2,691||2,572||-119||-4%||533||107|
|Education advisers and school inspectors||1,050||973||-77||-7%||206||41|
|Teaching and other educational professionals n.e.c.||4,652||4,414||-238||-5%||917||183|
What this shows is that although these occupations are in decline, there are still a large number of job openings, which indicates that there is a significant amount of job turnover in the Education sector. For people that are interested in working in education in the North East, this is a positive as it means that there are still jobs out there, despite the overall decline. It is also worth noting that because the openings numbers don’t take into account all forms of job mobility/replacement, they tend to be a fairly conservative figures.
In the next article we will be looking at the South East — an area which often shows strong growth — where we’ll view some of the broad level data to see whether the industries which are growing there are over-performing or under-performing compared to the national average.
For more details on our data, contact Andy Durman at firstname.lastname@example.org