As we mentioned in this piece last week, we have just completed our annual data update to include the newest datasets. This is due to go live this Friday and can be accessed through our data tool, Analyst.
One of the most interesting headlines to be gleaned from the new data release is that our job projection for Britain over the next few years is now higher than the projection shown by last year’s data. The following graph shows this, with the blue line showing 2003-2020 trends using last year’s data release, and the red line showing the trends for the same period using the new data (note that figures here do not include self-employed people with earnings below the VAT or PAYE threshold):
What is the reason for this change? Basically, according to the Workforce Job Series, which is one of the key datasets we rely on for projecting into the future, last year was better than previous years in terms of sustained job growth. You can see this on the graph between 2013 and 2014, and this has therefore affected our forecast for the years following.
As with any long term projections, we need to include a caveat, and it is important to note what we are not saying as much as what we are saying. We are not saying that there will be over 30,000,000 jobs in Britain in 2020, as shown by the red line. It would be impossible to state this with absolute confidence because, like the weatherman giving a long-range forecast, we cannot foresee what major events might arise over the next few years and the effect they might have.
For example, the data behind the figures in the graph was issued prior to the massive drop in oil prices which began a few months ago. It is not yet clear how long the low prices will remain or the extent to which they will affect the world and British economy, but there are already signs that there could be fairly severe losses in the oil industry, with a knock on effect for other parts of the economy. Events such as this will of course affect the overall the job situation over the next few years, as was the case with the financial crisis of 2008.
What we are saying, however, is that based on recent and past trends, the general direction of travel over the next few years is set to be upwards and positive.
For more details regarding our data, contact Andy Durman on email@example.com